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Microsoft's (MSFT) next-generation operating system, Windows Vista, could get a cool reception when it's released late this year or early next.
Corporate customers testing an unfinished version of the PC operating system complain that it's too large, slow and memory hungry, according to surveys by ChangeWave Research.
Testers say the software is super buggy, which raises questions about whether Microsoft can meet its current schedule.
Also, many customers don't see a need to upgrade to the new operating system right away. That means they're likely to stick with PCs running older versions of Windows for some time.
"If somebody was forecasting that this was going to be a game-changing event, sparking a huge PC upgrade cycle, our numbers would say no," said Tobin Smith, chief investment strategist for ChangeWave Research. "I think there's going to be a moderate upgrade cycle that is as much about replacing stuff that they were going to replace anyway."
Windows Vista is set to debut officially in January when it's installed on new PCs. But corporate customers have been told they could upgrade their current systems to the new Windows by late November.
Customers are skeptical that Microsoft can meet the November release. In a survey last month, only 22% of respondents who are testing Windows Vista believe it will ship to corporate customers in the fourth quarter. Nearly 60% think it will ship in first-quarter 2007, ChangeWave says.
Product Opens Many Windows
A further delay in Vista and then slack demand for it would be bad news for Microsoft, because so many of its business thrusts are tied to the new operating system, analysts say.
Those efforts include getting corporate clients to sign long-term subscription licenses and buy Office 2007 productivity software. Also at stake are new business initiatives like Windows Live services, which include security and Web search, and graphics and electronic document software.
Microsoft says glitches are to be expected from a test release. It will use feedback from testers to improve the product.
"We still have work to do before the product is finished," Michael Burk, product manager for Windows client at Microsoft, said in an e-mail response to questions. "Customer feedback is a critical part of the development cycle."
Asked whether the business release date would slip again, Burke said, "We have target dates for availability, but the final exact delivery date will be determined based on quality."
Windows Vista is Microsoft's first major overhaul to its flagship operating system since Windows XP came out in October 2001.
Windows Vista already has had delays. Microsoft said in March that it would miss the holiday shopping season. It pushed back the release from late 2006 to January.
Three-quarters of respondents say they're not deferring PC and server purchases to wait for Vista. Only 9% say they are waiting for Vista before buying new hardware.
When asked to name features they like about Windows Vista, 45% of respondents cite its new user interface and ease of use and 33% its improved security.
Among features that testers dislike, 44% cite Vista's large size and memory requirements. One respondent said Vista is "memory hungry" and requires "upgrading almost every PC." Another said it "consumes too many system resources."
Memory Hog
Windows Vista testers estimate that 27% of their computers would need to be replaced to accommodate Vista, ChangeWave says. Windows Vista requires more memory and faster processors.
Microsoft has created a "nice-to-have" product in Windows Vista, not a "must have," Smith said. That, coupled with surveys showing that big firms are slowing their rate of tech spending growth, could spell weak adoption for Vista, he says.
For its latest of several Vista surveys, ChangeWave polled 1,161 executives May 16-22. The respondents included 54 people who work for companies that are beta testing Windows Vista, along with 146 who plan to test it.
In addition, ChangeWave queried 961 people involved in tech spending for their outfits.
Seventeen percent of testers reported problems, with the beta version of Windows Vista freezing up or crashing. One respondent said Vista "locks up every hour."
On June 7, Microsoft released to the public the latest test version of the product, called Windows Vista Beta 2. Some other early reviews also have been unkind.
"I've run every Windows version in beta since Windows 95, and this is probably the shakiest that I've seen at this stage in the development process," said Joe Wilcox, an analyst with JupiterResearch.
Wilcox points out that the main purpose of a beta test is to get feedback so the firm can make fixes.
Large businesses and other enterprise customers planning to buy new computers probably will install older versions of Windows instead of Vista for a while, he says.
"I don't see a lot of companies rushing to roll out Windows Vista," said Paul Thurrott, news editor of Windows IT Pro magazine.
Many firms might wait for the first major revision to Windows Vista, which is due out a year after the initial release, he says.
That upgraded Windows Vista is timed with the release of Windows Server Longhorn, the latest Microsoft operating system for servers, the big computers that run networks.
Microsoft executives are starting to call the January release of Vista the "initial version of Windows Vista," Thurrott said.
The next version in 2008 will have an upgraded kernel, which is the core software responsible for communication between hardware and software components.
"They're already planning a fairly substantial revision to the core of Windows Vista within a year of its release," Thurrott said, "which is actually unprecedented for any Windows release."
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