By Jim Woods and Paul CartonResearch In Motion (RIMM) and
Apple (AAPL) continue their smartphone battle for the hearts and minds of consumers.
According to the latest ChangeWave survey, Apple is enjoying another good quarter in the aftermath of its 3G iPhone release. But while RIM sales momentum has been sluggish in recent quarters, its BlackBerry product launches have unleashed a jump in consumer planned buying that suggests a full-scale battle with Apple for market supremacy in 2009.
So, are the new BlackBerry products strong enough to capitalize on the increased consumer interest?
The ChangeWave survey of 3,803 cell phone owners takes a close look at smartphone market trends, including consumers' reaction to RIM's BlackBerry Storm launch, and how the device compares to the Apple iPhone. The Dec. 9-15, 2008, survey was conducted just weeks after the Storm's initial release.
Smartphone Market DemandThe overall growth rate for the smartphone market has contracted since our previous survey, but it's still positive despite the recessionary climate. In our most-recent survey, 12.2% of respondents said they plan to buy a smartphone in the next 90 days -- 0.3% more than the previous survey.
Current Market ShareWhile RIM (41%) is still the consumer market share leader, it has fallen one point since our previous survey in September, to its lowest percentage of the last 12 months.
Apple, on the other hand, has witnessed explosive growth -- up six points since September to 23%. Its overall market share has more than doubled in the past six months -- a direct result of the July release of the 3G iPhone.
Taken together, Apple and RIM now control two-thirds of the smartphone market, as smaller, weaker players, such as
Palm (PALM), have proven unable to compete.
Next 90 Days: Winners and LosersThe picture going forward points to changes in the smartphone market.
RIM (up nine points to 39%) shows real momentum due to its slew of product launches -- the Storm, Bold and Pearl Flip -- and appears capable of giving Apple a real run for its money in the first quarter of 2009.
Moreover, after the huge wave of enthusiasm generated by the 3G iPhone launch, Apple consumer planned buying (down four points to 30%) appears to have settled down somewhat.
So, as we kick off the first quarter, the ball has shifted back into BlackBerry's court in the form of a big uptick in consumer interest, which they can potentially capitalize on.
But is the new RIM lineup of consumer products strong enough to take full advantage of the increased demand?
'Storm'ing the GatesThe current survey took a close look at the reaction of 61 BlackBerry Storm owners and compared the results with a similar survey of new owners of the original iPhone, which was conducted in July 2007.
The overall satisfaction rating given by new owners of the BlackBerry Storm can be characterized as lukewarm, at best.
Thirty-three percent of Storm owners surveyed said they were very satisfied with their new model, well below the 52% very satisfied rating given by all current owners of BlackBerry smartphones.
Simply put, the Storm satisfaction rating is similar to that of mid-tier smartphone manufacturers like
Nokia (NOK) (32%),
Motorola (MOT) (32%), HTC (31%) and Samsung (30%). While far from being bad, it's mediocre, which means it's a potential concern regarding RIM's head-to-head battle with Apple.
For comparative purposes, here's how the BlackBerry Storm's favorability ratings stack up against those of the original iPhone (taken in a survey of new iPhone owners in July 2007, less than a month after its initial release).
As the chart shows, the original iPhone's very satisfied rating (77%) was more than double that of the new BlackBerry Storm (33%). And the Storm's unsatisfied rating (14%) is three times higher than that of the original iPhone (5%).
BlackBerry Storm: Key Likes and DislikesWe also asked respondents what they liked best and disliked most about the Storm.
The results show that RIM made the right choice in producing a touch-screen phone, being that it's a highly popular option in the smartphone market.
Forty-nine percent of respondents said the touch-screen interface is what they like best about their BlackBerry Storm. Other key likes included screen size (46%) and screen resolution (43%).
At the same time, the touch-screen interface may represent the BlackBerry Storm's Achilles' heel. In terms of dislikes, lack of a QWERTY keyboard (21%), touch-screen interface (20%) and difficult to use (20%) were the top issues cited, along with short battery life (21%).
Bottom LineThe smartphone market is now dominated by two companies -- Apple and Research In Motion.
According to our survey results, the Apple iPhone trails the RIM BlackBerry in terms of current market share, but the iPhone has experienced strong growth since its inception and explosive growth since the release of the 3G model in July 2008.
Going forward, RIM is showing a surge in momentum due to its slew of product launches, and appears capable of giving Apple a strong challenge in 2009. But the real test in a cutthroat market is how satisfied consumers actually are with their new phones.
In this survey, we found the BlackBerry Storm's satisfaction rating to be middle-of-the-road -- lagging behind the average rating for other BlackBerry models. The BlackBerry Storm may not be a bad phone, but the initial launch has glitches that have resulted in a mediocre satisfaction rating.
Competitive pressures may have caused the Storm to be launched before it was ready for prime time. But if RIM can fix its initial bugs quickly, the survey shows that this new offering -- along with the other recently released models -- will provide accelerated momentum for the company in 2009.
Paul Carton is the Director of Research for the ChangeWave Alliance Research Network. Jim Woods is a Senior Editor for ChangeWave. The Research Network is a group of 20,000 highly qualified business, technology and medical professionals -- as well as early adopter consumers -- who work in leading companies of select industries. ChangeWave surveys its network members weekly on a range of business and consumer topics, and converts the information into a series of proprietary quantitative and qualitative reports.
