Apple Macs: Dominant PC Story of 2008

Will the Leopard OS change the industry? Plus, Dell regains its equilibrium

By Jim Woods and Paul Carton

It's often said that a leopard cannot change its spots, but is the new Leopard operating system helping Apple change the PC industry?

Two recent ChangeWave surveys provide new insight on Leopard's industry impact, along with a close look at consumer and corporate PC demand for 1st Quarter 2008.

Mac Sales Hit New All-Time High

Apple (AAPL) computer sales continue to show extraordinary momentum for the holidays, according to our latest PC buying survey of 3,872 consumers (Oct 29 – Nov 5).

Not only do new Mac buyers report sky high satisfaction with their desktops and laptops, but planned Apple purchases for the next 90 days also look exceptionally robust, as seen below.

Tellingly, one-in-four respondents (24%) say that the release of Apple's new Leopard operating system has made them more likely to buy a Mac in the future.

This is a huge finding that, among other things, demonstrates the immense appeal of other Apple products (e.g., iPods, iPhones) and the “halo effect” they are having on the new Leopard operating system – and not just among consumers.

Planned purchases of Apple Macs are also set to hit new highs on the corporate side as well, according to our November 12-23 survey of 1,964 respondents involved in their company's PC purchasing decisions.

The following chart shows a 1-pt increase in corporate purchases of Apple laptops and desktops for the 1st quarter.

The bottom line for Apple is that Mac laptop and desktop sales to both consumers and corporations remain the biggest growth story in the PC industry – and it's getting a major boost by the new Leopard operating system. Apple is definitely pleasing PC buyers' palates this holiday season.

Is Dell Finally Stabilizing?

After two horrific downward years in our ChangeWave surveys, the tide among consumers finally appears to be stabilizing for Dell (DELL) – which managed to garner virtually the same market share in our current consumer survey as it had in our previous survey in August.

We believe the data should be interpreted cautiously, however, as Dell has previously shown signs of stabilizing among consumers (e.g., Jan 2007), only to resume its downward spiral within weeks.

But this time there are further encouraging signs for Dell – most notably their improved outlook is now extending to the corporate side as well.

The chart below shows the percentage of respondents involved with corporate purchasing who say their company plans to buy Dell PCs in the next quarter.

With Dell showing an uptick in corporate purchases, the overall picture appears brighter than any time during the past two years and supports the thesis that a modest turnaround has begun for the beleaguered box maker.

Just how much of an uptick is something we'll revisit in our early January post-holiday consumer spending survey.

Mixed Signals for Hewlett-Packard

In another surprise finding, sales of Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) computers appear weaker among consumers going forward – with planned buying of desktops (24%) and laptops (21%) both registering 4-point dips over the next 90 days.

This is unexpectedly weaker visibility for H-P among Alliance PC buyers for the holidays.

The story is more cheery for H-P's corporate market share going forward, where planned desktop purchases (18%) remain stable, and laptops (16%) tick up by 1-point.

All told, the numbers represent a surprisingly mixed bag for Hewlett-Packard going forward. We'll keep a close eye on the company as it attempts to gain share within an increasingly competitive consumer and corporate marketplace.

Our two ChangeWave surveys are showing lightning fast-shifts occurring in PC demand, and conjure up the old Chinese proverb "May you live in interesting times."

When it comes to the PC industry, the times are nothing if not interesting. Stay tuned.

Paul Carton is Executive Director of the ChangeWave Alliance. Jim Woods is ChangeWave's Senior Editor. The Alliance is a network of 13,000 highly qualified business, technology and medical professionals in leading companies of select industries. The Alliance is surveyed weekly on a wide range of business and investment research and intelligence topics.