Post-Holiday PC Round Up

ChangeWave survey shows explosive Apple Mac sales and high Leopard ratings

By Jim Woods and Paul Carton

Nobody ever said that Apple (AAPL) Mac users were a patient lot. But the wait is over for the Leopard operating system -- and judging by ChangeWave's latest consumer survey, Mac buyers found it well worth the wait.

To gauge the initial reaction to Leopard and to take a fresh look at the ongoing slugfest between Apple, Dell (DELL) and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), we surveyed 4,604 ChangeWave Alliance consumers during the week of Jan. 2-8.

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Here's what we found:

Apple Mac Sales Skyrocket

Past 90 Days: Consumer sales of Apple laptops (up three points to 17%) and desktops (up six points to 16%) took an astonishing leap over the holidays. The chart below shows just how dramatic a transformation in market share this represents for Apple.

Next 90 Days: Looking at the next 90 days, 33% of planned PC buyers said they'll purchase an Apple laptop -- a new all-time high for the electronics giant. At the same time, 29% said they'll buy an Apple desktop -- matching the November all-time high.

Apple also maintained its big lead in customer satisfaction compared with other major PC manufacturers. Seventy-nine percent of Apple buyers during the past 90 days said they are very satisfied with their purchase, and another 18% said they are somewhat satisfied.

To put this in context, Apple's two biggest competitors, Dell and Hewlett-Packard, received 59% and 58% satisfaction ratings respectively.

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It's clear that Apple is setting the standard in terms of customer satisfaction. But there's also a new twist as to why Apple is outperforming the rest of the industry -- and why it's likely to do so for the foreseeable future: Leopard.

With the new Leopard operating system now on the market, we were able to compare its customer satisfaction rating with Microsoft (MSFT) Vista and the Windows XP systems. The following chart presents a very clear picture:

Eighty-one percent of Apple buyers said they are very satisfied with Leopard -- an exceptionally high rating for a new operating system. This compares to 53% and 51% for Windows XP, and 27% and 15% respectively for the Microsoft Vista systems.

Leopard's high customer satisfaction not only dwarfs its competitors, but it's directly impacting consumer intentions to purchase an Apple computer.

Twenty-six percent of respondents said that the Leopard OS makes them more likely to buy an Apple computer in the future. That's two points higher than in our November survey -- another clear indication of how Leopard is helping to drive Mac sales.

Ho-Hum Sales for Dell -- But Future Still Looks Up

Past 90 Days: After an uptick for Dell in our previous survey in November, purchases of Dell laptops looked surprisingly disappointing during the past 90 days -- down five points to 22% -- although desktops sales did hang in there, falling one point to 33%.

Note that in the current survey, we rated consumer satisfaction for specific Dell models, and found that the Dell XPS line received the highest overall satisfaction rating.

Next 90 Days: On a brighter note, planned purchases of Dell laptops for the next 90 days look set to improve (up two points to 30%), and Dell desktops are showing real strength going forward, up five points to 36%. This is the first survey since June 2006 in which Dell has shown an uptick in planned purchases of both desktops and laptops.

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It is important to note that consumer PC sales only represent 15% of Dell's total business, so stay tuned. In mid-February, we'll have our corporate PC purchasing results, which will provide the rest of the picture on whether Dell PC sales have truly begun turning around.

Hewlett-Packard -- No New Surprises

Past 90 Days: This year's consumer holiday season contained little to get excited about for Hewlett-Packard in terms of PC sales. Only 28% of respondents who bought a computer said they purchased an HP laptop (down one point), and 26% bought a desktop (down two points).

Next 90 Days: Planned purchases of HP computers for the next 90 days also looked similarly uneventful; only 21% of respondents said they'll buy an HP laptop (unchanged from previously) and 23% will purchase an HP desktop (down one point).

Overall Spending Environment

Importantly, in the largest warning sign of the survey, overall consumer PC buying looks weak for the next 90 days -- only 13% of respondents said they'll buy a computer. That's three points less than last January, and the weakest reading we've had in more than a year.

This PC finding falls in line with the overall slowdown in consumer purchasing we've tracked in our ChangeWave consumer spending surveys for the past six months, and it's a trend that we will continue to watch closely in the weeks ahead.

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Paul Carton is Executive Director of the ChangeWave Alliance. Jim Woods is ChangeWave's Senior Editor. The Alliance is a network of 13,000 highly qualified business, technology and medical professionals in leading companies of select industries. The Alliance is surveyed weekly on a wide range of business and investment research and intelligence topics.

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