Mac Sales Slowing

By Paul Carton

Apple (AAPL) suddenly finds itself in a vulnerable position, just as the latest ChangeWave consumer survey shows another big leg down for the beleaguered U.S. consumer.

ChangeWave's September PC spending survey of 4,262 consumers shows Apple's real problem isn't Mac sales for the previous 90 days -- those look good. It's their outlook for Macs.

Past 90 Days -- A Good Quarter for Mac Sales

Among respondents who bought a computer during the past 90 days, 23% said they bought an Apple laptop, and 17% said the bought a desktop -- down one point and two points, respectively, from the August ChangeWave survey.

But while the latest Mac results are down slightly, they're still quite close to the highs reached in our July and August surveys, when the halo effect caused by the release of the iPhone 3G was still in effect.



When you look at the July, August and September surveys in combination, the results say that Apple should meet its Mac sales numbers for the July 1 through Sept. 30 quarter.

However, the outlook for the next 90 days shows a much tougher environment.

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Next 90 Days -- It's All About Visibility

Why the concern over Apple's outlook?

Among respondents who said they plan to buy a PC during the next 90 days, only 29% said they'll purchase an Apple laptop -- down five points since August. Another 26% said they plan to buy a desktop -- a four-point decline.

These are the weakest numbers we've seen all year for Apple in terms of future buying, and the biggest drop in visibility in two-and-a-half years.



Compounding the matter, overall consumer electronics spending for the next 90 days is registering another big slowdown just as the crucial holiday season gets under way.



Only 14% of respondents said they'll spend more on consumer electronics during the next 90 days, compared with 40% who said they'll spend less -- a net seven-point decline since August. This is the weakest 90-day outlook for electronics spending we've recorded in a ChangeWave survey.

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Most importantly, overall planned PC buying among consumers remains quite weak. Only 8% of respondents said they'll buy a laptop in the next 90 days, and just 6% said they'll buy a desktop. These findings are significantly lower than our results from a year ago.

Bittersweet Findings

Despite an already severe 15-month contraction, our latest survey shows U.S. consumer spending has suddenly taken a big turn for the worse. Fifty-two percent of our U.S. respondents said they'll spend less money during the next 90 days. And spending on consumer electronics looks set to take the biggest hit.

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In this environment, our July, August and September survey results measuring the past 90 days show that Apple should meet its Mac sales numbers for the quarter. But our September survey results for the next 90 days show Apple has a considerable visibility problem -- and this represents the real Achilles' heel for the company.

Bottom line: While Apple's guidance is normally conservative, we expect it to be much more so on Oct. 21, when it provides its Mac sales projections for the holiday season.

But the company still has a tremendous long-term outlook.

For example, our latest consumer cell phone survey shows the smartphone market is thriving. And among respondents planning to buy a new smartphone in the next 90 days, 34% said they'll get an Apple iPhone -- the highest level of smartphone demand in the industry, according to our surveys.

Based on our data, we fully expect that Apple's iPhone numbers will beat consensus estimates on Oct. 21. However, Mac sales projections going forward are the No. 1 issue for the company, and that's where our survey results show that Apple is vulnerable -- caught in the fierce headwind of the accelerating economic downturn.

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Paul Carton is the Director of Research for the ChangeWave Alliance Research Network. The Research Network is a group of 20,000 highly qualified business, technology and medical professionals -- as well as early adopter consumers -- who work in leading companies of select industries. ChangeWave surveys its Network members weekly on a range of business and consumer topics, and converts the information into a series of proprietary quantitative and qualitative reports.

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