Consumers Shut Down PC Buying

By Jim Woods and Paul Carton

While the technology is getting faster, consumer PC demand keeps slowing.

There's been another decline in PC buying, according to ChangeWave's latest survey of 3,115 consumers. The Feb. 2-9 survey focused on PC purchasing trends, including the demand for low-end netbook computers.

Tough Times for PCs

Planned PC buying remains at the worst levels ever recorded in a ChangeWave survey.



Only 4% of respondents said they'll buy a desktop during the next 90 days -- one point less than we registered in our January 2009 survey. Just 6% said they'll buy a laptop, which is unchanged from the previous survey.

We also note that overall consumer electronics spending is at the lowest level since we began measuring consumer purchasing in 2002.

Only 12% of respondents said they'll spend more on electronics during the next 90 days, compared with 43% who said they'll spend less -- clear signs of further deterioration in this space.

Demand for Netbooks Remains Firm

Our previous survey showed low-cost, highly portable laptops with smaller screens -- popularly known as netbooks -- have been one of the few beneficiaries of this tough spending environment. The latest survey results reinforce this finding.

Going forward, 18% of respondents said that the laptop they plan on buying in the next 90 days will be a netbook, which is four points higher than in January. The list of leading netbook manufacturers includes Acer and ASUS.

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Purchasing Trends: Next 90 Days

Within the weaker overall PC spending environment, Apple (AAPL) planned laptop purchases for the next 90 days (30%) have improved three points since our previous survey in January. But even as Mac laptops are managing to muddle through, planned desktop purchases (26%) dipped two points.



Note that the stabilizing trend we've picked up in Mac laptops going forward has occurred in the aftermath of the sharp drop we saw in planned Mac purchases in our January survey.

Research firm NPD Group's latest data on January Mac sales confirms that there was indeed a sharp downturn for Apple in January. NPD now estimates that actual Mac sales were down 6% for the month.

And even though our February numbers show some stabilizing occurring in Apple's market share, it's important to remember that this is occurring in a PC buying environment that is the lowest on record in a ChangeWave survey (6% for laptops and 4% for desktops).

HP and Dell

In the case of Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), visibility appears similar to our January results, with planned desktop purchases unchanged at 28% and planned laptops dipping one point to 22%.

In viewing these results, keep in mind that approximately 70% of HP's sales come from outside of the United States, whereas our surveys focus primarily on the U.S. market. Also, this survey focused exclusively on consumer PC sales. Our corporate PC results will be released later this month.

In the case of Dell (DELL), things just keep getting tougher for the PC manufacturer. Planned consumer purchases of Dell desktops (32%) and laptops (26%) for the next 90 days have both fallen two points.

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Satisfaction Guaranteed?

In terms of customer satisfaction, there's no question as to which company is the industry leader.

Among respondents who bought an Apple Mac during the past 90 days, 81% said they are very satisfied. This compares to a 55% very satisfied rating for Dell, and 52% for HP.



We note that ASUS (67% very satisfied) and Acer (61% very satisfied) both ranked high in the current survey -- one more sign of the powerful impact netbooks are having on the consumer PC market.

The question these results invoke is this: Even with the big hits Apple Mac laptops have taken in our September and January surveys, why are they still managing to somehow muddle along in this incredibly tough spending environment?

For the answer, take another look at the satisfaction chart above.

Click here to check out more of the latest ChangeWave research findings.

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Paul Carton is the Director of Research for the ChangeWave Alliance Research Network. Jim Woods is a Senior Editor for ChangeWave. The Research Network is a group of 20,000 highly qualified business, technology and medical professionals -- as well as early adopter consumers -- who work in leading companies of select industries. ChangeWave surveys its network members weekly on a range of business and consumer topics, and converts the information into a series of proprietary quantitative and qualitative reports.

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