Great News for Apple

A transformational shift in the consumer PC market bodes well for Apple and spells trouble for Dell

By Paul Carton and Jim Woods

in June, a ChangeWave consumer survey saw an explosive Apple (AAPL) “halo effect” on the way for Mac computer sales –- due, in part, to all of the advance publicity and hype surrounding the release of the iPhone. Click here for that report.

At that time, it appeared as though there was a transformational shift taking place in the consumer PC marketplace.

Well, the findings of our newest consumer survey are in and the news is great for Apple and ominous for Dell (DELL).

A total of 3,665 ChangeWave Alliance members participated in the current survey, which was conducted this August.

Past 90 Days

First we asked respondents who had bought a computer in the past 90 days to tell us about their purchase.

In what appears to be an ongoing alteration of the consumer PC landscape, Apple laptop sales surged to a new all-time high in the past 90 days -- up from 12% in June to 17% currently. This was an unprecedented five-point move.

Apple desktop sales -- down one point to 7% -- were solid but unspectacular during that same time period.

Going Forward

We also looked at planned Mac purchases for the next 90 days and found that 28% of respondents who said they plan to purchase a laptop said it will be a Mac -- mirroring the brisk momentum we saw in June. Another 23% said they'll buy an Apple desktop -- up one point from previously.

"These results are great news for Apple," said Tobin Smith, founder of ChangeWave Research and editor of ChangeWave Investing. "They serve as powerful evidence that the aforementioned 'halo effect' is indeed translating into real world Mac computer sales for Steve Jobs and company."

A Dell Head Fake?

When it comes to Dell, however, the survey findings did not bode well for the manufacturer. After a surprising uptick in our June survey, Dell's market share looked to be taking a huge hit once again.

Only 30% of purchasers said they bought a Dell desktop in the past 90 days. This represents a seven-point drop for Dell since June -- down to the second-lowest percentage it has recorded for desktops in a ChangeWave survey. Similarly, Dell laptop purchases fell four points to a new all-time low of 24%.

Dell's outlook for the next 90 days also appeared troubled. Our survey results showed planned desktop purchases fell five points to a new all-time low of 31%. The only potential bright spot for Dell was in its planned laptop purchases, which have inched up one point to 29% since June, although they, too, were near a record low.

It is important to note that most of Dell's revenue comes from corporate PC sales. In an upcoming article we'll present the results of our recently completed corporate IT purchasing survey, which will shed light on how Dell is faring in the all-important corporate marketplace.

Hewlett-Packard Hanging in There

Another prominent PC maker worthy of mention is Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), whose desktop share appeared quite stable among consumers. Twenty-six percent of respondents who purchased a desktop in the past 90 days said they bought an HP -- up one point from June. After peaking in our June survey, however, HP laptop purchases have edged back slightly -- down two points to 25%.

Going forward, the findings showed a big five-point jump in planned HP desktop purchases for the next 90 days to 28%. However, expected HP laptop purchases pulled back somewhat from their previous all-time highs -- down three points to 25%.

Overall, these were positive consumer results for Hewlett-Packard. HP desktop sales appeared to be up going forward, and while laptops have pulled back slightly off their June highs -- most likely due to increasing competition from Apple -- they nonetheless appeared relatively healthy.

And the Winner Is?

Perhaps the most impressive finding for Apple in this survey was its outstanding customer satisfaction rating. A whopping 86% of respondents who bought an Apple computer during the past 90 days reported being very satisfied with their purchase (another 7% said they were somewhat satisfied) -- by far the highest satisfaction rating we've found for any manufacturer.

On the flipside, Dell was dead last among PC makers when it came to customer satisfaction. In fact, only 44% of respondents who bought a Dell in the past 90 days reported being very satisfied with their purchase, down nine points since June.

The above chart shows the percentage of respondents who said they are very satisfied with the computer they bought in the past 90 days broken out by manufacturer. Note the difference between Dell's satisfaction rating and the rest of the major manufacturers. Also, note how far in front of the rest of the group Apple is.

This, too, is more great news for Apple and more ominous news for Dell.

Paul Carton is Executive Director of the ChangeWave Alliance. Jim Woods is ChangeWave’s Senior Editor.

The Alliance is a network of 11,000 highly qualified business, technology and medical professionals in leading companies of select industries. The Alliance is surveyed weekly on a wide range of business and investment research and intelligence topics.