RIM Dominates

Research In Motion widens lead, Palm continues to slide

During the past year, ChangeWave Alliance surveys have pointed to a changing of the guard in the smartphone industry -- with Research In Motion (RIMM) surging to a commanding lead over archrival Palm (PALM).

But with the Apple (AAPL) iPhone's hitting the scene, we wanted to find out what is in store for these two industry leaders and the rest of the smartphone competitors.

To do this, we turned to the results of our July survey on consumer smartphone demand, in which 3,003 Alliance members participated.

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Research In Motion Strengthens its Industry Lead

Research In Motion widened its lead as the undisputed king of the smartphone jungle, surging five points among respondents to a new all-time high of 38%. Second-place Palm fell six points to a new all-time low of 23% since our previous survey in April. 

Palm has lost market share for four-consecutive surveys.

Third-place Motorola (MOT) found itself down one point since April to 7%, and Samsung remained unchanged with 5%, while Nokia (NOK) experienced a two-point uptick to 5%.

Who is the manufacturer of your current smartphone?

Here is another look at the divergent paths of RIMM and Palm:

Note that the Apple iPhone -- which debuted at the end of June -- hit the ground running, already capturing a 4% market share among consumers who own smartphones.

Future Market Share

In the next 90 days, the story looks great for RIMM and even worse for Palm.

Research In Motion is the clear momentum leader among planned purchasers, registering another new all-time high -- up seven points to 33%. Palm's share among planned buyers slid one point to a new all-time low of 9%.

But perhaps the most important news of all is the momentum behind the Apple iPhone going forward, which was a strong second in the smartphone market with 18%.

It's worth noting that Apple did appear even stronger in our previous survey in April with 26%, but that was several months ahead of the iPhone's release -- before consumers were able to review the product for themselves. Now that the iPhone is on store shelves, it's close to astonishing that nearly 1-in-5 smartphone shoppers said they will buy one going forward.

Despite the iPhone's considerable strength, though, the momentum behind RIMM's BlackBerry remained unaffected.

Besides Palm, the big losers were Motorola (unchanged with 5%) and Samsung (down three points to 4%) -- both of which found themselves mired at the bottom end of the tier.

Nokia, on the other hand, showed some signs of life going forward -- up two points to 5%.

More on RIMM's Momentum

Interestingly, the No. 1 reason cited by respondents who said they planned to buy a RIMM phone, was the "influence of their employer," while those who said they plan to buy an Apple phone cited "quality."

As Alliance member CCH87512 put it, "RIMM devices are the standard for my company. They allow for the delivery of secure e-mail using our technology."

DOC44368 said, "My employer encourages it with discounts and support."

And in an earlier survey, Alliance member POL83507 wrote, "The BlackBerry is the proven standard, and all users are trained and familiar with the BlackBerry. The iPhone will be seen as a trendy device and not a business tool. Perhaps in a year or two, that may change."

The survey results showed that loyal BlackBerry owners are not being easily swayed by the iPhone media onslaught. While the iPhone's entry into the smartphone market has added a new level of uncertainty to an already crowded field, the survey results showed that, to date, RIMM has largely shrugged the whole thing off. In fact it's thriving -- even as Motorola and Palm are feeling pain.

In sum, while the iPhone's impact on the smartphone market has yet play out, the RIMM BlackBerry, with its long history of high standards and loyal customers, has so far emerged unscathed. While others appeared to be in danger of dropping off the radar screen entirely.

The one thing you can be sure of, though, is that it is not Steve Jobs or the rumor mills determining our findings -- it's the reaction of the 11,000-member ChangeWave Alliance to the actual products.

Our worldwide radar system of ongoing consumer and corporate buying surveys ensures that as soon as something new happens on the smartphone front, we'll be able to report on it weeks ahead of the Street.

The ChangeWave Alliance is a network of 11,000 highly qualified business, technology and medical professionals in leading companies of select industries. The Alliance is surveyed weekly on a wide range of business and investment research and intelligence topics.