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The Glitch That Stole Christmas?

March 23, 2006

Dear Fellow Options Trader,

There are some weeks that I sit around watching my trading screens and the experience is comparable to watching paint dry. And there are other weeks (like this one) wherein all kinds of news is hitting the tape and the markets start looking like a carousel horse run amok.

Some days, you just want a crystal ball to tell you where to place your bets, because it seems that good, old-fashioned logic and common sense go out the window when the news hounds start jumping on the stories of the day.

At a time when the major indices are stronger than ever, the Nasdaq has been flailing a bit to keep up with its brethren, and Microsoft's announcement that its new Vista operating system is being delayed until January 2007 isn't helping matters. But it's not the calamity that the headlines are reporting it to be -- at least, probably not for Microsoft. But its customers, however, will probably tell a different story when the December holidays arrive and Santa's sack is going to be devoid of the sugarplum on many PC owners' wish lists.

Vista was originally scheduled to be available for consumer buyers in time for the holiday shopping season, but only large-business customers will be stuffing their corporate stockings with the new technology, starting in November.

I have no doubt that Mr. Softee will overcome the small hit its shares took today on this second delay of the operating system (the last delay was in 2004), but that's peanuts in comparison to companies whose holiday bonuses were probably contingent on this first release of Windows in more than six years.

The thing is, though, those bonuses are still coming, although probably just in time for tax season instead.

Our recent ChangeWave Alliance surveys have been pointing to tech doing quite well this quarter and next. Granted, these surveys were taken before the Vista disappointment, but it's not the end of the world for companies like Intel that secured an additional revenue stream when it jumped on the Apple bandwagon as a vehicle for its processors. We'll be keeping an eye on the Cupertino, Calif., camp, as Steve Jobs and his crew are planning to be on standby for Santa Claus with Intel inside all of its desktops and laptops for all the good girls and boys who would rather have Apples.

Sure, more than 90% of the world's PCs run Windows, and the delay is a disappointment -- but that's all it is, as it's to accommodate more product testing. Having waited this long to unveil a new operating system, Microsoft's got a lot of people to impress, shareholders and distributors notwithstanding.

I don't doubt that everyone who's been patiently awaiting a Windows upgrade will proceed with their plans to purchase Vista -- we'll just see the results a quarter later than expected. But this is a great lesson in predicting winning stocks, for the folks playing along at home.

A company is only as successful as its partners. And in my mind's eye, Intel is short for "intelligent move" -- as in, their foresight to pervade both of the majors in the computer-platform space means that they win no matter which one crosses the finish line first!

Good luck trading and remember -- pigs get fat, but hogs get slaughtered, so don't be a hog!

Jon "Dr. J." Najarian
Editor
ChangeWave Options Trader

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TUESDAY, MAY 16

• 7:45 a.m. - 8:30 a.m.: Michael Shulman -- Biotech: No Longer a Speculative Investment


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• 7:45 a.m. - 8:30 a.m.: Jon Najarian -- Learn Two Basic Option-Trading Techniques in 45 Minutes, Guaranteed!


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• 11:30 a.m. - 12:15 p.m.: Bryan Perry -- Retire on Diversified Double-Digit Income


• 12:30 p.m. - 2 p.m.: Toby Smith -- Cashing in on Technology (Lunch)


• 3:15 p.m. - 4 p.m.: Toby Smith -- Top Five Worldwide Wealth Waves of 2006-2007


• 6 p.m. - 6:45 p.m.: Toby Smith, Bryan Perry, Jon Najarian, Michael Shulman -- ChangeWaves to Ride in 2006 (ChangeWave Panel)

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• 7:45 a.m. - 8:30 a.m.: Jon Najarian -- Learn How Options and Insider Greed Can Make You Rich


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• 12 p.m. - 12:30 p.m.: Toby Smith -- Stage Presentation -- 20 Questions with Tobin Smith


• 1:30 p.m. - 2:15 p.m.: Toby Smith -- Top Five Technology Wealth Waves 2006-2007

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