Latest ChangeWave Surveys Show Slowdown in Personal Computer Sales

By Paul Carton
March 25, 2008

PCs ain't selling like they used to.

That's the conclusion drawn from two recent ChangeWave surveys which show the economic slowdown is knocking back demand for personal computers. And our February surveys of consumers and businesses clearly show deteriorating PC sales going forward.

Over The Next 90 Days...

Only 8% of the 4,427 consumers surveyed by ChangeWave in late February say they'll be buying a laptop in the next 90 days - the lowest level of consumer laptop demand in the past 12 months.

The same trend was seen in desktop PC purchases, with just 6% saying they'll be buying one - also a low for the year.

Things weren't any better on the corporate side, where PC buying has also slowed precipitously. In February, only 73% of 2,204 corporate respondents said their company plans on buying laptops in the next quarter - down 4-pts from a year ago. It's the same pattern for desktops, with corporate purchases down 5-pts.

Given such big declines, which computer manufacturers will be hurt most?

Apple Still Relatively Strong

Despite the slowing PC environment, planned purchases of Apple (AAPL) Macs remain relatively strong.

Looking at the next three months, Apple remains the leader among consumers who plan to buy a laptop (31%) - down just 2-pts from the all-time high recorded in our previous survey. Apple planned desktop purchases (28%; down 1-pt) are also near record levels.

Importantly, Apple's numbers are up more than 50% from a year ago.

Corporate planned Mac purchases are also at or near record highs, as laptops (7%) were unchanged from previously, while desktops (6%) fell just 1-pt.

And in a clear sign PC buyers like what Apple is doing, our survey showed the company continues to set the standard for customer satisfaction.

Among corporate respondents using the Leopard operating system, over half (53%) report they are Very Satisfied. This compares to a 40% Very Satisfied rating for Windows XP Pro users, and a dismal 8% Very Satisfied rating for Microsoft Vista Business (8%).

Clearly, the Leopard OS is a crowd pleaser.

Dell: Back To The Future

Dell's (DELL) fortunes going forward are far different than Apple's.

Our previous consumer PC survey showed Dell with a small uptick in planned consumer buying, but that rise appears short lived - they are once again losing traction going forward. Planned purchases of Dell laptops (28%; down 2-pts) and especially desktops (32%; down 4-pts) are considerably weaker than in our previous survey.

Dell is also plagued by a downturn in planned corporate PC buying for next quarter, with desktop (32%; down 3-pts) and laptop (32%; down 1-pt) purchases falling to new lows.

"It's like déjà vu, all over again," Yogi Berra famously said, and that's what it looks like as Dell once again resumes its market share slide.

H-P Weak, But There's a Twist

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) also wasn't spared in our surveys, as they are experiencing weaker PC sales going forward - led by a big drop in consumer planned buying of desktops (18%; down 5-pts) and laptops (19%; down 2-pts).

On the corporate side, planned purchases for H-P desktops fell 1-pt to 17%, while laptops dipped 2-pts to 14%.

One thing in H-P's favor, however, is their strong sales overseas (nearly 70% of their total sales) - where the current slowdown is likely having less of an impact. Note that our ChangeWave surveys focus mainly on the U.S. market.

When we did ask respondents living outside the U.S. about Hewlett-Packard planned purchases, H-P registered higher market share numbers for consumer desktops (22%), corporate desktops (20%) and corporate laptops (17%).

But despite the couple of bright spots in our surveys, it's clear that overall visibility in both consumer and corporate PC purchasing is on the decline.

Jim Woods co-wrote this article.


Related ChangeWave PC Findings
--Companies Hitting the Brakes on PCs (9/23/08)
--Apple Mac Sales Resilient Despite Sluggish PC Spending (7/1/08)
--Dell Disappoints - Yet Again (3/2/08)
--Survey Shows Explosive Apple Mac Sales... (1/22/08)