ChangeWave Accurately Predicts Apple Mac Sales Boom

ChangeWave has been tracking the explosive market share growth of Apple (AAPL) Macs since before the company's Intel (INTC) chip deal announcement in June 2005. During that time, our research has consistently shown powerful momentum for Mac desktops and laptops well in advance of traditional research channels.

We compared our ChangeWave Apple Mac survey data from 2006-2008 with Mac unit sales reported by the company.

The following chart illustrates the percentage of consumers who said they intended to purchase Macs during the 90 days following the survey versus the number of units that actually sold.

As you can see, our ChangeWave survey results have been a wonderful early indicator of actual Mac sales, which represent the core of Apple's business.
 
These results are a good example of how our ChangeWave surveys give you an informational edge by accurately predicting future trends before the rest of the Street catches on.

And below you can see Apple's stock chart for the 2006-2008 timeframe:

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Hot Tickets From the Alliance

Each week Alliance members submit "Hot Tickets" as a way of presenting new observations and ideas on investable opportunities to ChangeWave. Today we're focusing on Apple's iPhone 3G release, the housing market and Wal-Mart's store traffic, just to name a few. Read on to find out what you need to know.

*Note: These Hot Tickets are for informational purposes only. They do not represent recommendations from ChangeWave.

(1) iPhone 3G

GRE5573 writes: "I bopped around a little on Sunday, July 13, to do some channel checks at Apple (AAPL) stores in my area -- granted, I could do this online, too -- but I wanted to see the crowds and the process for myself. All but one of the local Apple stores were out of stock as of Saturday night (the day after the launch), except for one where people were still waiting at least three hours in line on Sunday to buy and activate a new phone.

"Clearly, people want the new iPhone (even with all the execution problems), as more than 1 million were sold worldwide during the first weekend."

(2) Light at the End of the Housing Tunnel?

JIM94281 writes: "As a contractor in southeastern Wisconsin, I believe I can see a light at the end of the housing tunnel. During the last two months, we have seen a level of activity we haven't experienced in a very long time. We've been bidding on new homes at a steady pace, and both model and existing homes have been selling. I'm not saying this is a bottom, but it's definitely a positive uptick in activity. And even though I think I can see a light at the end of the tunnel, I'm still not sure what it is or what it will turn into."

(3) Wal-Mart's Traffic

ENE03196 writes: "Last week, a neighbor in Vero Beach, Fla., went to the area Wal-Mart (WMT), but it was so busy he couldn't even find a parking place for 15 minutes."

(4) Iron Phosphate Batteries vs. Cobalt Oxide Batteries

ROC01043 writes: "Iron phosphate batteries are a type of lithium-ion battery that doesn't use cobalt oxide. A battery using iron phosphate is much more stable, and because of this they can be charged to roughly 90% capacity in about five minutes. They also have a tremendous life cycle. It's estimated that these batteries could cycle for up to 10 years and still have more than 90% of initial capacity.

"One negative about iron phosphate is that the battery runs on a voltage of 3.2 instead of 3.7 or 3.75 and thus has a lower amount of energy per gram. Also, the specific capacity of iron phosphate is slightly lower than cobalt oxide. Since cobalt oxide batteries have been around much longer, iron phosphate batteries are still very expensive to make."

Proof-Positive You Must Own Apple

If you own Apple (AAPL), don't sell. In fact, you may want to buy more shares. At ChangeWave Investing, we have a unique research model that's the key to our success, and it's telling us that Apple shares may see another 80%-100% gain.

Keep reading to get the full story and the proof to back it up.

Tech Alert: Music Downloading in the Dumps

With the slump in consumer spending, even untouchables like entertainment downloading have taken a hit.

Compared with a year ago, ChangeWave's latest survey results show that entertainment downloading has actually slowed.

We asked respondents which of the following types of entertainment -- if any -- they or their family downloaded.

The percentage of our respondents who reported that they do not download entertainment has risen to 41% -- a six-point climb from a year ago.

Distaste for digital rights management (DRM) software -- used by record companies to combat file sharing -- has resulted in a high degree of frustration among consumers, even though major record labels are in the midst of phasing out DRM. That, too, could be contributing to the slowdown in entertainment downloading.

We also asked respondents which of the following music download services they used.

As you can see, the Apple (AAPL) iTunes service is bucking the overall downward trend and continues to dominate the entertainment downloading space.

Apple's loyal customer base, and the easy integration of iTunes with the iPod, iPhone and other Apple devices, keep the company in a class of its own.

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