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Monday's Hotsheet
The HOT Sheet - Tomorrows News Today
August 4, 2008
arrow RIM Beats Palm Hands Down in Smartphone Fight
 
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Hot Tickets From the Alliance

 

arrow Free Sessions Live From the San Francisco Money Show
Tobin Smith

The Long-Term Perspective

ChangeWave has been tracking the corporate smartphone industry and the market share battle between manufactures Research In Motion (RIMM) and Palm (PALM) since early 2007. While we know the value of our research, it's when we compare our data with a company's performance that you can really see the proof in the pudding. Read on to see just how accurate our surveys were in predicting the victor of this smartphone war. And check out this week's Hot Tickets to get the latest insight from our 15,000-strong Alliance research panel.

signature- Tobin Smith

Toby

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arrowRIM Beats Palm Hands Down in Smartphone Fight

 

RIM Dominates Corporate Smartphone Market

Research In Motion (RIMM) has been the dominant manufacturer in ChangeWave corporate smartphone surveys dating back to February 2007.

At that time, we reported: "Among respondents whose companies currently provide smartphones, RIM (61%) remains the clear industry leader. Thirty-four percent of their users reported that their company is very satisfied with their BlackBerrys -- with an 89% satisfaction rating overall."

We've continued to track RIM's momentum since that time. Below is a chart comparing our ChangeWave RIM survey data from February 2007 through June 2008 and actual revenue as reported by the company.

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In an upcoming ChangeWave report, we'll take an up-close look at the potential consumer demand for RIM's three new phones -- the Bold, the Thunder and the KickStart -- as they aim to counterattack the new Apple (AAPL) iPhone 3G among consumers.

Palm Gets Pinched

While RIM's market share is on the rise, Palm's (PALM) has been in the midst of a multi-year freefall.

In February 2007, we wrote: "Our current results look particularly troublesome for Palm (22%), which is facing a shrinking corporate buying environment. Palm also doesn't fare as well regarding corporate satisfaction … only 22% of Palm users said their company is very satisfied with its Treos."

ChangeWave surveys have continued to track Palm's demise. Below is a chart of our survey data on Palm from February 2007 through June 2008 compared with revenue as reported by the company.

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As you can see, our ChangeWave survey data has been a wonderful early indicator of RIM's market share ascent and Palm's collapse.

And here's a look at the change in RIM and Palm's stock prices during the same time period:

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Hot Tickets From the Alliance

Each week Alliance members submit "Hot Tickets" as a way of presenting new observations and ideas on investable opportunities to ChangeWave. Today we're focusing on the greatest challenges facing Alliance members' companies in the current economic environment. Read on to find out what you need to know.

(1) Problems With an Aging Workforce

BAN53456 writes: "The technical professionals in the oil industry are experiencing what has been dubbed, 'the big crew change.' Most of the experienced people were hired in the early 1980s boom, with virtually no hiring from the mid-80s to 2000. So we have a bimodal age distribution with a lot of young people and a large number of near-retirement individuals without anyone in between.

"This is a serious gap that the industry will need to solve before retirements hit in full force. Even so, it is already affecting the capabilities of some organizations. The younger workforce needs to mature very rapidly, but in the interim, mentoring and a tolerance for mistakes are key."

(2) Wireless Limits

KFS18490 writes: "Our industry creates applications for mobile phones, including smartphones. Our greatest challenge is working with wireless carriers and the way carriers limit users' ability to access applications and services. The carriers cite various reasons for limiting the access -- from protecting customers to network security -- but these are, for the most part, excuses to cover the fear of losing control of customers and forcing developers to share revenue.

"If the mobile Web were open, as it is for the desktop, it would force the carriers to compete strictly on price, quality of the network and customer service. Imagine if your home ISP controlled the types of applications and content you could download to your PC. You would not be happy. But this is exactly what wireless carriers are doing to their customers."

(3) Perception vs. Reality

TOM96929 writes: "The current market perception is that the downturn in the economy is adversely affecting the adoption of Software-as-a-Service (SaaS), when, in fact, it's the opposite. SaaS is maturing and becoming more widely accepted. During budget crunches, it looks attractive because it enables companies to do more while paying less."

(4) Info Tech Outsourcing

PAT93209 writes: "For cost reasons, we are working with peers on another continent and are being forced to make it work somehow. This is happening all over the place in large IT companies. Job outsourcing is real, and in the United States we have to figure out how to make it work."


 

arrowFree Sessions Live From the San Francisco Money Show

We're broadcasting several of our ChangeWave sessions live from the San Francisco Money Show, so even if you can't make it to the City by the Bay, you'll still be able to get the advice that can help you in this tough market.

Sign up today to watch these free sessions from the comfort of your home:

Saturday, Aug. 9

Make Your Fortune in the $50 Trillion U.S. Oil Shale Boom -- Toby Smith
2:15 p.m. - 3 p.m. Pacific (5:15 p.m. - 6 p.m. Eastern)

ChangeWave Roundtable: What's the Next Mega-Trend? -- Toby Smith, Bryan Perry, Michael Shulman and Jon Najarian
6 p.m. - 6:45 p.m. Pacific (9 p.m. - 9:45 p.m. Eastern)

Sunday, Aug. 10

Swing Trading the Sectors for Fast Profits -- Bryan Perry
11:45 a.m. - 12:30 p.m. Pacific (2:45 p.m. - 3:30 p.m. Eastern)